submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. DollarsFirstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto DollarsDue to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
Institutional DevelopmentsIn addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
Future OpportunitiesThere is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
 How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
 The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
 Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
 Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
 Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
 Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
 McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
 Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
 Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
 Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
 Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
 The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
 Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
 Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
 New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
 Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
 Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
 Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
 Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
 Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
https://preview.redd.it/uis77n5jtlg11.jpg?width=696&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=55da8eb9e1eb652aecf92162343dc8c5e9b484d2submitted by Scarlet_TIO to u/Scarlet_TIO [link] [comments]
Good day everyone,
Here is the full Q&A that Paul Johnson did on Telegram on August 6. Apologies for the delay.
First off, on behalf of management, we appreciate everyones patience while we roll out the exchange. While crypto is very complex and has lent to some delays, and things not moving as fast as we or the community wants, we want to let everyone know we are doing everything we can to "spped" things up.
Q : Can I trasfer BTC directly, from Bitforex (yes, that scam, I just dumped a wreck train I held) to Tradeio? Because I have Mew, but Mew cant store Btc
A : We are actually adding to our dev team and adding experienced blockchain people that have worked on exchanges before, which are very far and few between. Additionally, we've added to the marketing team, and are revisiting the way we approach the social outlets like Twitter, to ensure its much more accomodating and interactive.
Q : when LP, when exchange full launch ?
A: As we said LP wouldn't happen less than a month after exchange launch. This was said to manage expectations. Realistically though, based on the volume currently on the exchange which is very little, it only makes sense to open the LP up once there is some substantial revenue coming through so LP participants aren't sharing pennies. We expect once the exchange is up and running fully, revenue to come. You combine that with the OTC revenue (deals are already being lined up), consulting revenue, etc. the overall LP revenue should then be decent. There are other "goodies" that are being finalized now to increase utility of TIO i..e adding to revenue for LP, that will also help out sooner rather than later.
Q: How much volume are we expecting so LP smoothly runs?
A: It's impossible to say, but assuming their figures are "real" you could probably benchmark us against similar exchanges on CMC and look at their volumes. One thing though that's important to mention is that we've already started work on margin trading and if you look at Bitmex, which flies under the radar, the margin component really enhances volumes for obvious reasons.
Q: What's the progress with the Fortune 500 company mentioned?
A: Yes, management is aware that JPM mentioned something like this during the Cyprus expo. For obvious reasons we really can't go into that too much, and in hindsight i think JPM would have kept that "closer to the vest." With that said, however, management are in talks with quite a few different companies, as our exposure is growing and companies appreciate the way we're approaching the exchange from a regulatory standpoint...i.e. not running from it, but rather running to it.
Q: What is real showstopper for slow rate or user additions to exchange. When can we expect to add all the 20k backlog users?
A: Yes, fully aware of that, and that's a major point that management has stressed to the devs, that this backlog needs to be cleared, as TIOnauts have waited long enough. The core components of the exchange have been working very well, with the exception of a few bugs, and we're happy with latency, the matching engine, and deposits/withdrawals.
Q:Any profit (however small), will be saved for the LP? 50% of it that is
A: Yes, consulting profits, profits from any JV's, etc. will be "saved" and accrued for release once LP starts.
Q:Hey Paul, do you have any information about when restricted countyes will have access? For ex any info about croatia?
A: TIOnauts to be clear the following countries (areas) are part of the OFAC list which will not be able to trade with trade.io. Please take note of the Balkan Islands:
Balkans (Serbia, Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia, Kosovo)
Central African Republic
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Q: When will we see improvements in your KYC process? I expected to see online forms, digital signature processes, video verification etc. .
A: As mentioned the other day, this week dev's will be removing the need to verify if you're withdrawing less than 2 BTC equivalent in a 24 hour period. Going forward, there will be no need to print and sign anything, it will all be done electronically. In terms of video verification, honestly speaking, I'm not sure how scalable that is given the sheer number of people that trade crypto. Could you point to any other exchanges with large volumes that conduct video verifications?
Q: I know that the exchange was properly stess tested. In that context do we know what is the max volume TIO exchange can handle at the moment?
A: Last figures I heard were given the infra as is now, high 6 figure orders per second, which is very robust and will tie us over for quite some time, if this is the benchmark right now.
Q: the team is saying everything i want to hear right now as far as im concerned this is an awsome project crypto industry is moving fast and we are all a part of it
A: Thank you, but saying is different than doing....its very important that we execute in a timely manner, otherwise its just "lip service." Management is modifying the way somethings are being done internally to insure that TIOnauts are getting a more timely delivery of all the great things that have been told to them.
Q: Withdrawal of less than 2 btc will be avaliable a limited amount of time or permanent?
Q: croatia is sepa country in EU, what is stopping you from supporting kyc from there?
A: We don't create the OFAC list, until Croatia is removed, our hands are tied.
Q: Bitpanda. If something's hard to do, that doesn't mean it's not worth doing - I'm sure you clever people can make it scalable. KYC is usually first point of contact with an exchange - The more fluid and easy the process is the better
A: Noted, and agreed, its not about being "hard" its about being scalable. Will 100% look into adding something like this, but need to check with regulators first to see if this is allowable.
Q: When mobile layout up as predefined template so everyone can use the exchange while waiting an app version ?
A: we're working on a completely sep layout for mobile as you mentioned. Explain what you mean regarding a predefined template for mobile? You mean a layout that's more friendly for mobile based on the exchange as is now?
Q: Gm Paul, tks for AMA. Questions:
1) Are revenues from Angel Investor program also going to LP? I guess it does but haven’t seen stated yet.
2) when we should expect matching engine to be more consistent and pick up on volume because right now it works sometimes and at really low volumes.
A: 1) Yes, Angel Investor is tied into the Consulting program.
2) What do you mean by "matching engine to be more consistent"?
Q: maybe much better if we have mobile apps to download
A: Correct, and that development has started.
2) i see that bots are working right now, looking at trading history each trade is really low volume, only 0.00xx units and not everytime,
A: Yes, good observation, we have bots generating tiny trades for the sake of creating charts...otherwise, based on volume by "real" clients, the charts would look pretty bad. We're keeping the volume small, so when we turn over to CMC, we're now skewing volume with bots...much like BitForex got caught doing.
Bots are not 100% flawless unfortunately like actual trading, so unfortunately need to grin and bear this for the near term, until we can turn the bots off, and rely on real people trading which is that way it should work.
Q: What s the planned improvements on marketing and social presence you mentionned earlier ?
A: Once exchange is open to everyone, only then will API be available, as agreed, that's when the bigger traders will come knocking.
Q: Ok thx for explanation, i thought that was matching engine at work as sometimes it does hit on real orders, but mostly are in fact done at px between real orders.
A: No, many of those tiny orders are the bots, again, without them the charts would look like big blobs.
Q: While I sent in KYC I had the moon theme and the file names were almost unreadable.
In the other themes it was fine but the colour of the filenames needs to be adjusted for the moon theme
A: Yes, this was brought up in previous chats, we'll see to it this is fixed. We shouldn't expect you to upload docs if you can't see what needs to be uploaded
Q: It was after session timeout and relogin
A: They've been trying multiple things, glad to hear it may be fixed.
Q: 25k already seem pretty low !
A: Yes, in this space it is, but we want to get traction more importantly and start generating rev for the lp. Will def be increased, as we expect very heavy flow based on initial indications.
Q: 25 is the minimum though? So many will be higher
A: Yes, we're already working out high 6 figure deals already through our dealers relationships.
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